26 October 2009
Successful Intentions Newsletter
Hi ,
Are you a hedgehog or a fox?
The Greek poet Archilocus declared, "the fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing".
When it comes to holding opinions and making predicitions about the world, hedgehogs are thinkers who "know one big thing", who aggressively claim that one big thing explains "everything", who display bristly impatience with those who "don't get it", and who express confidence at being able to accurately predict how things will turn out.
On the other hand, foxes are thinkers who know many small things (tricks of their trade), who are skeptical of grand schemes, who improvise ad hoc solutions to keep pace with a rapidly changing world, and who are self-critical of their own forecasting ability.
What's your preferred style of thinking, ?
The benefits of hedgehog thinking are:
- Resistance to distraction.
- Tough negotiating postures that protect against exploitation.
- Willingness to take responsibility for controversial decisions.
- Determination to stay the course.
- Capacity to inspire confidence by projecting a decisive, can-do attitude.
Fox thinking is:
- Skeptical of all deductive approaches to explain or predict.
- Draws attention to disconfirming evidence.
- Reluctant to make extreme predictions.
- Worried about hindsight bias triggering harsh judgements about the past.
- Prone to a detached, ironic view of life.
- Motivated to weave together conflicting arguments.
In general, foxes have better judgment than hedgehogs according to Professor Philip Tetlock in his book, "Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?"
Foxes tend to avoid many of the big mistakes that drive down the successful prediction scores of hedgehogs to about the same level as dart-throwing monkeys. But hedgehog opinion, with its simple, decisive statements is always in greater demand from the media.
The moral of the story is to try to be more of a fox-hedge than a hedge-fox when it comes to the big decisions. The roots of failure in decision making can be found in an unwillingness to be sufficiently self-critical, to re-examine underlying assumptions, to question dogma, and to think daringly about options that others might ridicule.
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When did the "Great Crash of 2008" really begin? Find out on my "Wisdom Circle" blog for musings, research, and applications of practical wisdom!
Keep your intentions clear,
Peter Webb
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